Hard to Argue with 220 Years of Data: The Case for Trend Following
For more than two centuries, investors have relied on a familiar formula: diversify stocks with bonds and stay invested. Rinse and repeat.
Over the long run, this approach has worked — but history shows it has also exposed investors to deep, prolonged drawdowns that can permanently impair wealth and investor behavior.
A comprehensive academic study analyzing more than 220 years of global market data (1800-2021) evaluates which defensive strategies protect portfolios during the worst market environments. The findings are striking: trend following consistently ranks among the most effective and reliable forms of downside protection ever observed, outperforming traditional “safe havens” like gold and option-based hedges.
Hard to Argue with 220 Years of Data: The Case for Trend Following
Author: Jon Robinson
Market Predictions Make as Much Sense as ‘6-7’
January 7, 2026
If there’s one universal truth in investing, it’s this: nobody actually knows what’s going to happen next. That doesn’t stop Wall Street, the media, or your neighbor with the new day-trading setup from trying. In our view, it’s a whole lot of “6-7,” as the kids are saying these days.
Welcome to La-La Land: This Market Feels Familiar (And Dangerous?)
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Right now it feels like we’re living in a financial version of “La La Land.” Even the historically-seasonal instability of September and October failed to materialize. Like the part in a movie where everything seems fine, even as the ominous soundtrack is shifting, are we in a dreamlike uptrend while potential cracks are forming beneath our feet?
Offense Also Wins Championships
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Trend following generally emphasizes defense, but a robust systematic investing strategy can also play offense.



