Mike Carlone

The months of November, December, and January are chock full of traditions. Family dinners, presents, tree-cutting journeys, ugly sweater parties, and matching pajamas (don’t ask) are all emblematic of this time of year.

In the financial markets, the equivalent to the ugly sweater party is the making of market predictions for the year ahead. Sure, it’s fun, they’re cute, and they grab attention. But ultimately, they are useless and thus a waste of time. (Yes, I’m aware I sound like Scrooge right now.)

One need look no further than 2024 to be reminded (once again) of the futility of market predictions. By some accounts, the average of 2024 forecasts had the S&P 500 Index closing at 4,861, yet in reality the year closed with the benchmark index closing higher than 5,880 – that’s an error of about 21%…on average. Yikes.