Why We’re Willing — And Wanting — To Look Different From the Norm

  September 30, 2024

You cannot swim for new horizons until you have courage to lose sight of the shore.

—William Faulkner

In investing, the principle of non-correlation presents both opportunities and challenges. 

While our portfolios may not look drastically different from traditional approaches today, there will likely come a time when they do. Non-correlation means holding investments that don’t always move in sync with the broader market. While this can feel uncomfortable, we think it’s crucial for managing risk, reducing volatility, and enhancing long-term growth potential.

This concept and willingness to look different is key. It’s like carrying an umbrella on a cloudy day, when no one else does — it may seem unnecessary at the time, but when the market storms inevitably come, you’re better prepared. Holding non-correlated assets can feel counterintuitive when traditional investments are performing well, but these same assets often provide the stability needed when market conditions shift. While looking different may be tough in the moment, it’s often the foundation for achieving a more resilient, long-term outcome.

In this month’s Co-Founders’ Note, we discuss:

  • The advantages we see in trend following during unpredictable markets
  • How trend following steers us away from the pitfalls of market predictions
  • Why a disciplined, systematic approach may reduce risk while helping keep the focus on long-term growth

But first, here’s a summary of our take on what transpired in the markets in September.

Asset-Level Overview: Market Talking Points for Financial Advisors

Equities & Real Estate

After experiencing a second retracement since early August, the S&P 500 Index rallied once again and made new all-time highs September 19. Currently, tech and growth continue to lead the pack for the year, but all segments and factors remain in uptrends. Despite the persistent strength of U.S. equities, exposure in our portfolios will decrease slightly as allocations will return to other assets that have strengthened enough to receive their full weighting.

Foreign developed and emerging markets allocations will once again be unchanged as we head into October. The two international equity segments continue to move in lockstep in terms of 2024 performance. Trends over all timeframes are positive.   

Real estate securities continue their bounce back, aided by a resilient economy and now-lower interest rates due to the Fed rate cut. The asset class is quite strong among the equity and quasi-equity baskets. Exposure in our portfolios will return to baseline allocation for the first time since the first quarter.

Fixed Income & Alts

For the fourth straight month, both exposure and duration will increase within the fixed income allocation. Trends across all timeframes are positive, and the segment continues to strengthen relative to other assets. U.S. Treasuries will remain overweight in our portfolios, while international government bonds will move to baseline allocation for the first time since February. The last time international bonds reached this level, the move was brief, and before that, it last sat at baseline allocation in January 2023.

For the alternatives allocation in our portfolios, long fixed income is now the most influential exposure. Net long equity exposure has decreased slightly but remains a notable segment. Commodity and currency net exposure continues to be muted.

Sourcing for this section: Barchart.com, S&P 500 Index ($SPX), 8/1/2024 to 9/25/2024 and Reuters, “S&P 500 surges to record high close on euphoria over Fed rate cut,” 9/19/2024

3 Potential Catalysts for Trend Changes: Giving Clients the Context

Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve voted to lower interest rates by a half-percentage point. Eleven of 12 Fed voters supported the cut, which brings the federal funds rate down to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Quarterly projections released by the Fed show a narrow majority of officials are open to additional cuts, which could lower rates by at least a quarter-point at each of the November and December meetings. The decision to cut rates by a larger amount than most analysts expected signals that the central bank is moving into a new phase of its battle with inflation. They are attempting to prevent past rate increases, which took borrowing costs to a two-decade high, from further weakening the U.S. labor market.

Rate Effects: “It’s not obvious that Fed rate cuts will have much of a soothing effect on the economy because the average interest rate that households and businesses face is going to rise even after the Fed cuts rates,” said Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research. However, the rate cuts could have a quicker real-world impact because the U.S. is at a different starting point than other rate-cutting cycles. The economy is still adding jobs and retail sales growth remains positive, with figures from the Commerce Department indicating consumer spending is growing solidly.

Mortgage Rates and Home Sales: U.S. home sales fell in August. Sales of previously owned homes fell 2.5% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. This is the fifth time sales have declined in the last six months. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has dropped to 6.09%, which is the lowest level in more than a year.

Sourcing for this section: The Wall Street Journal, “Fed Cuts Rates by Half Percentage Point” 9/18/2024; The Wall Street Journal, “Lower Interest Rates Don’t Guarantee a Soft Landing,” 9/27/2024; and The Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Home Sales Slipped in August Despite Falling Mortgage Rates,” 9/19/2024

Price (Again) Predicts News

Time the devourer of everything.

—Ovid

Since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022, the term “soft landing” has been used to describe the goal of reducing inflation without tipping the economy into recession. Now, as the third quarter draws to a close, it seems not only possible but increasingly likely that this outcome is on track. Gross domestic product remains above long-term growth estimates, supported by strong consumer, capital expenditure, and government spending. Meanwhile, unemployment remains historically low. Recent Fed cuts are also expected to boost the economy by putting downward pressure on mortgage rates. In short, the data offers little support for a recession forecast.

As one might imagine, the stock market has responded positively to these developments by once again making new highs. Perhaps just as important, bond markets have also reacted favorably by making multi-year highs as they seek to recover from their great bear market of 2022. The combination of these two can create a powerful wealth effect that could further fuel growth in the economy.

Now, to someone who doesn’t closely follow the economy or financial news, this might not appear to be a big deal. However, to us — and we would assume most of our readers — this is enormous news. It is also a reminder of just how difficult it is to predict markets given how much sentiment has vacillated between optimism and pessimism during the last few years. 

One of the key attributes of trend following, which we emphasize at every opportunity, is its ability to position without relying on the risky biases that come with making predictions. In our view, prediction is a high-risk, high-reward game — get it right, and the returns can be significant; get it wrong, and the consequences can be disastrous.

Besides the RISK of prediction is the COST of prediction. Making educated guesses requires significant cost in terms of the time and energy needed to develop an edge on the competition. This raises questions: 

  • Is it better to pursue high-risk/ high-reward, high-cost predictions? 
  • Or is it better to follow a system that offers more consistent, lower-risk outcomes with less cost?

To be clear, we believe the payoff of trend following will match or exceed that of a predictive approach over the long term, but even if you handicap the outcomes a bit lower, the reduction of risk and the savings of time and energy more than compensate, in our view. Imagine all the derivative benefits from this recaptured time to meet with clients, grow your practice, or just enjoy your personal time more. 

While a soft landing seems to have been achieved or is imminent, it’s crucial to remember that this outcome was far from certain — and still may not be a few months from now. It’s also worth noting that the debate is far from over. Opinions have shifted frequently and likely will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. 

Attempting to navigate the uncertainty thus far without a fully defined system was a gamble at best, in our view. Perhaps most importantly, even if a financial advisor was able to nail it this time by using a predictive approach, that does nothing to improve the odds they will be able to do so again next time.  On the other hand, if an advisor adopts a more passive approach, then it begs the question of why a client cannot do the same on their own.

We view a trend-following approach as the “happy medium” between the two: rooted in data, based on a repeatable system, and designed to react to actual market behavior rather than relying on prediction or passivity. While a client could theoretically implement such a system themselves, we think a financial advisor brings immense value by helping the client stay focused on their long-term goals, adjusting the plan as life circumstances change, and providing guidance during both positive and negative market environments.

We have been managing client portfolios in one form or another for nearly two decades now, and as time goes on we find it almost comical how much time some financial advisors will spend on portfolio management only to see mixed results…at best. If an advisor finds fulfillment in this area, then they should spend that time accordingly. However, if their goal is to grow the practice or enjoy time doing something else, it represents a significant opportunity cost because the advisor misses chances to focus on other, potentially more valuable activities.

Partnering with a firm like Blueprint Investment Partners can represent a big paradigm shift for an advisor, which can be scary. We appreciate the guts it takes to embrace a new approach. However, we will attest from our own experience that incorporating systematic trend following can be a breath of fresh air. We believe the firms that have partnered with us for years would attest to the same. 

Sourcing for this section: Reuters, “S&P 500 surges to record high close on euphoria over Fed rate cut,” 9/19/2024 and Barchart.com, US Aggregate Bond Ishares Core ETF (AGG), 1/1/2022 to 9/25/2024

Best regards,

CEO & Co-Founder
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President & Co-Founder
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