Behavioral Finance

“The forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” This classic line from Warren Buffett constantly reverberates through the minds of the team at Blueprint Investment Partners, and it has reached a crescendo during this turbulent start to 2025.

My colleague, Mike Carlone, summarizes that same Buffett quote this way: Predictions can be dangerous. You can read his take in a 2022 blog post titled, “Why Predictions Are More Dangerous Than Guesses.” Though it is three years since he wrote it, recent times show the warning is just as important as ever: When investors base their financial decisions on the predictions of “experts,” they put roots into sandy ground because analysts and economists actually have no idea what is going to happen. The future is unknowable!