Co-Founders' Monthly Note For Financial Advisors

April 2025:

Downturns May Look Similar, But Context Tells Us When To Act Different

Not all threats are created equal. Two situations might look similar on the surface, but that doesn’t mean they should be treated the same.

This principle is especially true in markets, where risks can appear familiar but behave very differently based on what came before.

This is where a systematic investing process can show its strength. Rather than treating every downturn the same, it adapts to context — recognizing when a pullback is just noise versus when it might be the start of something more serious. That adaptability is especially relevant now, as recent signals have led our systems to reduce exposure to U.S. equities.

In this month’s Co-Founders’ Note, we revisit two market corrections that looked nearly identical in speed and magnitude — but triggered opposite portfolio responses. The difference wasn’t in the outcome; it was in the setup. And that distinction is exactly why we follow process over prediction.

But first, here’s a summary of our take on what transpired in the markets in March.