Co-Founders' Monthly Note For Financial Advisors

July 2025:

Forecasts Have Missed the Mark, Our Discipline Has Not

Every June, we find ourselves doing the same thing: reviewing the first half of the year and comparing reality to expectations. Not because we believe predictions drive portfolios, but because the gap between what people thought would happen and what actually happened is often the most instructive part of the investing process.

Take small caps, international stocks, or interest rates — all areas where prevailing forecasts heading into 2025 have missed the mark.

Although we think they can be foolish, this isn’t necessarily a critique of the forecasts themselves. It’s a reminder that the most important thing in investing isn’t being right — it’s about having a process and being prepared regardless of what happens.

That’s why at Blueprint Investment Partners, we design systems that can adapt to shifting conditions without relying on foresight. When small caps looked poised for a breakout, our models stayed cautious. When international equities still seemed out of favor, our systematic investing process told us to lean in.

In this month’s Co-Founders’ Note, we reflect on what’s unfolded so far in 2025 — not to pat ourselves on the back or call out misplaced predictions, but to reinforce the value of a systematic, long-term mindset in a world that keeps trying to throw curveballs.

But first, here’s a summary of our take on what transpired in the markets in June.

This Month's Note

Asset Allocation Monthly Update

Asset allocation changes for Blueprint's global risk-managed portfolios

S&P 100 Strategy Monthly Summary

Asset allocation changes for the risk-managed Blueprint S&P 100 Strategy

Archive: Co-Founders' Notes

June 2025

Investment Systems Can Do Almost Anything. But Not Everything.

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May 2025

Simplicity Is a Good Defense Against Uncertainty

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April 2025

Downturns May Look Similar, But Context Tells Us When To Act Different

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March 2025

A Disciplined Strategy Helps Avoid Self-Inflicted Wounds

Read More