Co-Founders' Monthly Note For Financial Advisors

July 2025:

Forecasts Have Missed the Mark, Our Discipline Has Not

Every June, we find ourselves doing the same thing: reviewing the first half of the year and comparing reality to expectations. Not because we believe predictions drive portfolios, but because the gap between what people thought would happen and what actually happened is often the most instructive part of the investing process.

Take small caps, international stocks, or interest rates — all areas where prevailing forecasts heading into 2025 have missed the mark.

Although we think they can be foolish, this isn’t necessarily a critique of the forecasts themselves. It’s a reminder that the most important thing in investing isn’t being right — it’s about having a process and being prepared regardless of what happens.

That’s why at Blueprint Investment Partners, we design systems that can adapt to shifting conditions without relying on foresight. When small caps looked poised for a breakout, our models stayed cautious. When international equities still seemed out of favor, our systematic investing process told us to lean in.

In this month’s Co-Founders’ Note, we reflect on what’s unfolded so far in 2025 — not to pat ourselves on the back or call out misplaced predictions, but to reinforce the value of a systematic, long-term mindset in a world that keeps trying to throw curveballs.

But first, here’s a summary of our take on what transpired in the markets in June.