Co-Founders' Monthly Note For Financial Advisors

January 2025:

Bearish. Bullish. But Also Indifferent.

As humans, we’re wired to crave certainty. 

It’s comforting to think we can predict what’s coming next — in life, in markets, and in the broader world. 

This desire for certainty isn’t just a quirk; it’s rooted in cognitive biases that shape how we interpret the world. Recency bias tempts us to overemphasize recent events, assuming today’s trends will continue indefinitely. Overconfidence convinces us we know more than we do, emboldening us to make predictions we can’t possibly guarantee. And confirmation bias leads us to seek out information that aligns with what we already believe, reinforcing flawed assumptions.

These biases don’t just influence individuals. They shape market sentiment, often leading to predictions that seem logical in the moment but unravel with time. 

At Blueprint Investment Partners, we aim to sidestep these traps by trading the allure of certainty for the discipline of a systematic approach. Instead of speculating about what SHOULD happen, we focus on following what IS happening, using trends to guide us through uncertainty.

As we reflect on 2024 — a year that defied many expectations — and prepare for 2025, we’re reminded that resilience comes from acknowledging uncertainty rather than resisting it. In this month’s Co-Founders’ Note, we explore how the past year unfolded, the lessons we’ve drawn, and the opportunities we see ahead.

But first, here’s a summary of our take on what transpired in the markets in December.