Hope Is a Strategy (Just Not a Good One)
“Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.” –Red, “The Shawshank Redemption” If you ask my wife what puzzles her most about me, I imagine the short list would include my near-compulsion to stop on certain movies while channel surfing. I mean, I get it. How many times does one person really…
Read MoreTrend & Value Walk Into a Bar…
“Nature uses only the longest threads to weave her patterns, so that each small piece of her fabric reveals the organization of the entire tapestry.” Richard Feynman One of the most common questions we hear about our systematic investing philosophy is the comparison of trend following to value investing. We welcome these questions. As trend…
Read MoreFamous Strawmen: The Scarecrow & The Best 10 Days Rule
My mother has always been a big fan of Victor Fleming’s “The Wizard of Oz.” When I was a kid, it would be on TV at least once a year, and mom always made a point to watch it. I usually joined her…up until the part where the witch and her creepy troop of flying…
Read MoreApples, Oranges & The S&P
I happen to share a trainer with a local advisor. I hadn’t seen him since early 2022, so when I saw him recently, I asked him how his clients responded to the minting of a bear market in U.S. equities. He shared that he was satisfied with the planning and preparation he had done with…
Read MoreMotivation? Or Discipline?
How many times have you stopped and considered the real meaning of words used every day? More importantly, how often do you challenge your own notion of that meaning by looking it up? Recently I heard a friend and father I respect tell his son that discipline is more important than motivation. He said, “Motivation…
Read MoreCourage is Not the Absence of Fear In Mountaineering (Investing Too!)
A friend recently convinced me to watch a new(ish) Netflix documentary, “14 Peaks: Nothing is Impossible.” It follows a Nepalese mountaineer who attempts to climb all 14 of the world’s peaks higher than 8,000 meters in less than seven months. Even a non-climber like me can appreciate that the endeavor undertaken by the film’s star,…
Read MoreInvestments that are Good on Paper, Bad in Practice
Don’t ask me why I know this, but there’s an episode of “Sex and the City” when the women discuss dating people who “look good on paper.” They explain that a “good on paper guy” is someone who offers great credentials, good manners, and financial stability. He seems like a great match – but only…
Read MoreAnatomy Of A Bear Market
There are numerous examples of words and phrases entering the lexicon, providing deep meaning for many years, but over time and with frequent use losing significance among the masses. The word or phrase itself didn’t change, but the meaning was diluted by changing circumstances. I worry that “downside protection” has run through the watering-down process.…
Read MoreWhy Predictions are More Dangerous
I was always terrible at those “guess how many tootsie rolls are in the jar” games as a kid. My complete lack of skill never deterred me from participating though. I mean, what kid was going to pass up the opportunity for a windfall like that?! Plus, it was just a guess. None of my…
Read MoreThe Investing Equivalent Of Parachute Pants
If you search deep in the nooks and crannies of your memory, you probably can recall one specific fashion choice you made in your younger days that you now look back on with absolute shame. You may have destroyed the pictures – I know I did, and thank goodness this was before the digital age!…
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