Trend Following: Weed Control for Portfolios

Person holding a dandelion at sunset

A powerful motivator for many parents is a desire to have their children’s upbringing to be better than their own. Better schools, a nicer house, more toys, and better vacations are all things many of us wish for our kids to experience – especially if we didn’t have these things in our own childhood. I…

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Inflation Autopsy Report

Headstones in a graveyard

Back in 2021, as inflation rates broke out from their long-term range, we discussed a study by the Man Institute about strategies for inflationary times. Now that prices appear to be stabilizing, we can look back and ask, “How did these assets do?” In Theory, These Are The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times Commodities: In the…

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Meteorologists with 8% Accuracy Would Be Fired

Court jester clown

Every year on the day after Thanksgiving, my family makes a two-hour drive west to the mountains of North Carolina on the hunt for the perfect tree to celebrate the holidays. It is no doubt one of my favorite family traditions.  Our tree-chopping outing just happens to coincide with the start of one of my…

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Famous Strawmen: The Scarecrow & The Best 10 Days Rule

Scarecrow in a field

My mother has always been a big fan of Victor Fleming’s “The Wizard of Oz.” When I was a kid, it would be on TV at least once a year, and mom always made a point to watch it. I usually joined her…up until the part where the witch and her creepy troop of flying…

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Side Effects of the Stock Market May Include…

Confusing traffic lights

Pretty much everyone has experienced the agony of having their TV watching interrupted by the ubiquitous pharmaceutical advertisement. In fact, they have become so commonplace that an assortment of entertaining spoofs have been created, like this one. As the video above highlights, one of the memorable aspects for many of these medications is the absurdly…

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Tax Time Sticker Shock

Monkey with surprised face

Imagine your client losing 20% of the value of their investment, yet receiving a capital gain distribution that’s also a double-digit percentage. Impossible you say? Well, for some mutual fund investors that is exactly the scenario they face as we approach the U.S. tax filing deadline. What lessons can we glean from 2022 and the…

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Apples, Oranges & The S&P

Apple, orange, and blueberries on a table

I happen to share a trainer with a local advisor. I hadn’t seen him since early 2022, so when I saw him recently, I asked him how his clients responded to the minting of a bear market in U.S. equities. He shared that he was satisfied with the planning and preparation he had done with…

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Why Buffett & Marks Are Trend Followers (Even If They Don’t Know It)

Warren Buffett and Howard Marks

“When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they’re the first thing I open and read.” Warren Buffett Few (if any) money managers are better than Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, in our opinion. I mean, can you get a bigger endorsement than Warren Buffett’s quote above? If you are not familiar with…

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Dissecting the 3 Stages Of a Bear Market

Architectural style drawing of 3 teddy bear toys

In a blog last week, I discussed how the virtually uninterrupted bull market in equities during the last 10+ years has watered down the idea of “downside protection.” This is a problem, especially since not all declines are created equal. It has become apparent to the team at Blueprint Investment Partners that a more nuanced…

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Anatomy Of A Bear Market

Architectural style drawing of a teddy bear toy

There are numerous examples of words and phrases entering the lexicon, providing deep meaning for many years, but over time and with frequent use losing significance among the masses. The word or phrase itself didn’t change, but the meaning was diluted by changing circumstances. I worry that “downside protection” has run through the watering-down process.…

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