Resilience Is the Goal, Not Perfection

November 27, 2024

It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near one.

—J.R.R. Tolkien

In investing, the allure of certainty can be hard to resist. When parts of a portfolio underperform in the short term, the urge to abandon them grows, driven by a desire to focus solely on what’s working. But this desire often leads investors away from the principles of diversification — principles designed to build resilience over time, not deliver comfort in the moment.

Behavioral psychology helps explain why.

Recency bias, our tendency to overemphasize recent outcomes, tempts us to double down on short-term winners while discarding slower-moving assets. This instinct is natural but can be dangerous. It ignores the fact that markets are dynamic, and today’s laggards can often become tomorrow’s leaders.

For trend followers, diversification is non-negotiable. A systematic, data-driven approach can be used to allocate across markets — knowing that not every position will perform at the same time. This discipline ensures the portfolio is ready for whatever comes next, even if it means enduring temporary discomfort.

Resilience, not perfection, is the goal.

A well-diversified portfolio isn’t built to make every position shine in every market. It’s built to adapt. This means accepting the ebb and flow of performance without second-guessing the process. In moments when diversification feels frustrating, it’s worth remembering that resilience comes from sticking to the plan, not reacting to short-term noise.

As the year draws to a close, predictions about what’s ahead will swirl. Inevitably, many will miss the mark. That’s why we focus on a systematic approach, allowing markets — not opinions — to guide us. While systematic trend following isn’t immune to challenges, its emphasis on discipline and adaptability has repeatedly demonstrated value in helping navigate uncertainty.

In this Co-Founders’ Monthly Note, we explore how diversification and discipline shaped our approach in another year of unexpected twists and turns.

But first, here’s a summary of our take on what transpired in the markets in November.

Asset-Level Overview: Market Talking Points for Financial Advisors

Equities & Real Estate

Despite the risk of higher volatility due to a contentious U.S. election and escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, U.S. stocks continued to march higher with low volatility in November. Large caps remain the strongest segment year to date, but the monthly increases were broad with mid and small leading the way. All segments remain in textbook uptrends as we move into the final month of 2024.

While the promise of “America First” policies under the new presidential regime boosted U.S. stocks, international stocks were not so fortunate. Both developed and emerging markets have now crossed into downtrend territory over the intermediate term, meaning that exposure will decrease. These vacated allocations will move to the stronger U.S. equity segment, leaving international underweight relative to the U.S.

The interest rate forecast remains murky, with inflation continuing to mostly move lower but the economy remaining strong. Another, smaller rate cut in November kept the landscape accommodative for real estate securities, but this could be short lived if data provides an obstacle to further reductions in interest rates in 2025. For now, real estate trends are positive and allocations remain at the baseline.

Our Asset Allocations

Fixed Income & Alts

The retracement in bond prices that began in October continued in November. After steadily increasing exposure to higher-duration bonds during the late summer months, we have now nearly unwound all of those trades. We are fond of pointing out that this is a feature rather than a bug of trend following. These false positives have not materially impacted overall portfolio performance and have provided valuable tax-loss harvesting opportunities for taxable accounts.

The shorter end of the yield curve remains strong and will continue to take on exposure from weaker fixed income segments while equities drive performance.

In the alternatives allocation of our portfolios, we maintain a primary exposure to fixed income. We are increasingly favoring corporate bonds while reducing exposure to long-duration Treasuries. The equity sector is hedged, predominantly favoring long positions alongside selective shorts. Additionally, our commodities exposure also remains net long.

Our Asset Allocations

3 Potential Catalysts for Trend Changes: Giving Clients the Context

Economic Surveys: U.S. economic activity continued to expand this month as confidence among U.S. businesses boomed following the election. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI measures activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. It increased to 55.3 in November, up from 54.1 the prior month. That speeds up a previously increasing trend, and it indicates that activity is expanding at the fastest rate in about two and a half years. The services sector continued to be the only measure higher 50, indicating expansion. The manufacturing industry contracted at its slowest rate in four months, suggesting a recovery could be in the cards in the months ahead. In fact, manufacturing sentiment achieved its most positive level in two and a half years.

Tariff Talks: China’s share of U.S. imports declined to around 14% in 2023. This compares to about 22% in 2017. However, rising tariffs between the U.S. and China have done little to lower the overall U.S. trade deficit in global trade or China’s overall trade surplus with the United States. The trade imbalance is driven by strong demand by consumers in America and weakening domestic Chinese demand.

Home Buying: Sales of existing homes rose in October, which reflects a brief drop in mortgage rates. The short-lived rate decline improved affordability for buyers and generated the first year-over-year gain in sales in more than three years. A 30-year fixed mortgage decreased throughout the summer and reached a two-year low in late September. “People are accepting that the mortgage rates, the new normal, is not going to be 3% or 4% or 5%,” said Lawrence Yun, who is the chief economist at National Association of Realtors. Overall, home sales in 2024 are still on track to be the lowest level since 1995.

Sourcing for this section: The Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Private Sector Activity Picks Up Pace as Firms Look Forward to a New Government,” 11/22/2024; Tradingeconomics.com, United States ISM Services PMI, 11/26/2024; Tradingeconomics.com, United States ISM Manufacturing PMI, 11/26/2025; The Wall Street Journal, “American Companies Are Stocking Up to Get Ahead of Trump’s China Tariffs,” 11/20/2024; and The Wall Street Journal, “Home Sales Rose in October Following Decline in Mortgage Rates, 11/21/2024

Serving Our Tribe While Continuing to Grow It

The future influences the present just as much as the past.

—Friedrich Nietzsche

Well, there you have it, Blueprint Investment Partners still is terrible at making predictions. We’re in good company.

We have tried to prepare our partnering advisors of the potential for a spike in volatility tied to the climax of an especially contentious U.S. election cycle. With the S&P 500 Index making more than 50 new highs in 2024 and providing returns well above its average, we didn’t want folks to be caught off guard by a retracement in U.S. equities in November. We also observed the behavior of markets in 2016 and 2020, noted the volatility they ignited, and believed an increase was likely with this election as well.

While we (and many others) expected downside volatility to increase as October closed and November began, it never happened. We feel like the teacher in “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off,” calling, “Volatility? Volatility?”

Downside price variability remained low in U.S. stocks, and more new highs in the benchmark indexes were generated. In fact, a broadening of market strength occurred where mid- and small-cap stocks outperformed all other segments. While still lagging on a year-to-date basis, small and mid have now closed the gap considerably relative to large caps.

Fortunately for us, our success as a firm is not influenced by our ability to successfully predict market movement. We have intentionally designed investing systems that dictate every aspect of our investment process, which means we can make all the incorrect predictions in the world and it won’t change the outcome of our portfolios — as long as we stick to our repeatable investing script. As the Co-Founders of Blueprint Investment Partners, we have navigated through many different market environments during our more than 20 years of collaborating to build systematic investing systems, and the itch to override our systems has long been drilled out of us.

One of the things that is most appealing to us about the discipline of using trend following to manage portfolios is the intellectual honesty it demands, as well as the peace and serenity it creates. As a trend-follow asset manager — especially one that is transparent about its rules — the strengths and weaknesses are laid bare for all to see. There is no hiding and no point in wearing a mask. We can’t pound our chest when trades result in positive performance, nor is there any reason to be dejected when they don’t. All of the pride related to trend following success is rooted in the boldness and courage it takes to quietly and decisively make the next trade regardless of how previous ones have panned out.

We consider this peace and serenity related to our trading to be a reward for many years of research and experience. We were also fortunate that our formative years developing as traders coincided with the Great Financial Crisis because we learned to always be prepared for things that have never happened before. The success we had in that environment by following our rules will forever be etched in our souls, providing an invaluable reminder not to deviate from a well-laid plan.

We are also grateful to our partners and predecessors in the trend following space, such as Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital Corporation. Their example of discipline, combined with their generosity with time, information, and experience have been vital to our development since the beginning.

Switching back to the topic of predictions, we’ve noticed the prognostications for 2025 have already begun and will only pick up steam. If experience is any guide, some will be right but most will be wrong. Further, the correct ones in 2025 will probably come from folks who were dead wrong in 2024, meaning even if you tag along with the right prediction in 2025 there’s no guarantee it will help you in 2026.

We feel for those financial advisors and investors who have to rely on prediction for achieving their financial goals. Systematic trend following is not perfect, but we continue to be amazed by its ability to maximize the odds of success no matter how things change in the markets. We are excited for what lies ahead, as it seems more people join us in our appreciation for systematic investing every day. We will never be for everyone, but that’s OK. We are thrilled to serve our tribe and to continue growing it.

We are so grateful for our partners, advisors, and their clients. Without you, all that we do would be meaningless and empty. We wish you and your families a very happy holiday season!

Sourcing for this section: Finance.yahoo.com, “S&P 500 Notches Its 50th All-Time High in 2024: Markets Wrap,” 11/8/2024 and Morningstar.com, “How S&P 500 tends to perform during Thanksgiving week and into New Year's Eve,” 11/26/2024

Best regards,